Ask the Edge Article #1 08/15/2007

Welcome to our first edition of Ask The Edge. Our goal in this weekly column will be to give you an edge in the world of fantasy football. Unlike typical fantasy columnists, we have developed a statistical model (which is easy to use and free for download) that we will use as the basis for our recommendations and analysis. Our approach is simple. You want consistent players. Players that score 30 points one week and 2 the next don’t help you as much as someone who consistently scores 15. It doesn’t help you to blow a team out one week and lose the next. Instead you would rather win a close game both weeks. So, why don’t we get started with the most important step in the season… drafting your lineup.

Of course, all fantasy leagues have different point systems. The tool mentioned above allows for flexible scoring settings, so check it out for more in depth analysis. All of our analysis in this column will use a “standard” scoring system. So, you may be asking yourself who should I draft in the first round? If you have one of the top 3 picks, this may not be a tough choice. After that it’s not an easy answer. We need to look at the depth of each position. This will give you an idea of where the best value players are. For instance, if there is a run of 10 running backs taken, you need to ask yourself if that 11^th running back gives you more value than, say, the next available quarterback. Don’t chase the run on any position, unless there are no higher value choices at other positions. This is a common mistake. This is what the tool allows you to see. Large drop-offs in weekly scoring indicate that the next player is worth waiting for, while instead you can select a high value player at another position. The chart shows this.

Tip of the Week: Avoid drafting rookies too high. Almost everyone falls for it at least once… the first round rookie that’s supposed to be the next <insert Hall of Famer here>. Anyone remember the JJ Arrington hype a few years ago? Take last year’s rookie running backs as an example. Last year Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai each scored in double figures only 3 times. Laurence Maroney did only twice. Now, each may have an outstanding sophomore campaign, but the point is that rookies are usually over-hyped. Less media-covered backs such as Marion Barber, Chester Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew consistently scored higher than any of the rookie backs. Instead of wasting a high pick on a rookie, wait and do your research and be the one to pick up a Marques Colston.

Need help analyzing a trade, don’t know who to start? Email us (support@statoracle.com) any questions you have, and we’ll try to answer them here every week. And don’t forget to check out our tool to give you The Edge in your fantasy football league.