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Article #1 08/15/2007 TGIFS – Thank God it’s football season. It’s time for some football, real and fantasy. Welcome to our first edition of The Edge. Our goal in this weekly column will be to give you an edge in the world of fantasy football. Unlike typical fantasy columnists, we have developed a statistical model (which is easy to use and free for download at www.ihavetheedge.com) that we will use as the basis for our recommendations and analysis. Since anyone can tell you LaDainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning or Chad Johnson are good picks, we will focus on finding the “Edge Sleeper.” “Edge Sleepers” are defined as picks not found in the top 5 and most likely not in the top 10 by various publications. In the end, the goal of a sleeper pick is to be a good pick midway through the draft or a possible pick up via free agency which will deliver you points close to a top pick, particularly when your star is injured or on a bye week.
QB – Steve McNair: Last year’s numbers don’t show McNair as a solid pick unless you filter out week 7 and forward. During that time McNair performed as if he was a Top 10 pick. Willis McGahee upgrades the running game, which should benefit McNair. QB – Jay Cutler: The
strong-armed sophomore should continue to blossom after RB – Maurice Jones-Drew: Last year he was top 10 RB in both receiving and rushing TD’s, receiving yards, and total yards. RB – Marion Barber III: Last year Barber had 14 rushing touchdowns in addition to 2 more receiving. He’s a physical inside runner who will continue to poach touchdowns from Julius Jones. WR – Mike Furrey: This position is deep, so we tried to get picks even below the typical Top 20. Furrey has the potential to be an “Edge Sleeper” given Mike Martz’s focus on the passing game. Yes they drafted Calvin Johnson, but Furrey could play a significant 3rd receiver role, ala Chris Henry or Brandon Stokley from a few years back WR – Santonio Holmes: Had a rather quiet 800 receiving yards, with a crazy 16.8 yards per catch in 2006. He's a starter from the outset now. Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians loves the vertical passing game, and Holmes provides outside speed that has been lacking for the big-armed Roethlisberger. TE – LJ Smith: The lack of depth makes sleeper TE’s difficult to pick. Philly’s receivers are horrible, and LJ was in the top 10 for TE last year in TD’s, receiving yards and receptions. TE – David Martin: He
will be the Dolphins' starting TE and should benefit from K - Sebastian Janikowski: The Raiders’ stagnant offense should yield many long field goals. Janikowski was surprisingly a top 10 kicker in 2006. Def – Green Bay: Again, lack of depth makes sleepers a tough find. All 11 starters are returning. Using a typical defense scoring system last year, they had an overall ranking of 3.
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