Article #2 9/01/08

Welcome to the second edition of The Edge.  Our goal in this weekly column is to give you an edge in the world of fantasy football.  Unlike most fantasy football analysts, we have developed a statistical model (which is easy to use and free for download at www.ihavetheedge.com) that we use as the basis for our recommendations and analysis.  This model allows you to put in your own scoring system which could change your decision dramatically.

 “Edge Weekly Sleepers” are the players not found in the top five, and most likely not in the top 10, by various prognosticators.  The goal of the “Edge Weekly Sleepers” pick is to find someone on your bench or maybe even someone available as a free agent to be scoring near the Top 5 for that position in that week.

So let’s get started, shall we?

QUARTERBACK

Steve McNair, Baltimore 

Last week we selected McNair as our draft sleeper.  Although the Bengals upgraded their secondary with first round pick Leon Hall, there are no quick fixes in the NFL.  The Bengals tied in their ranking for the worst pass defense in the league last year, surrendering 238 yards per game.  McNair averaged 236 yards and had no interceptions in two games against Cincinnati last year.  Expect him to hit the end zone this week.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

We feel bad picking on the Ohio teams, but that’s how the cookie crumbled.  In fantasy it’s not about the team winning or losing, it’s the players’ stats that matter.  This week the model says there’s hope for Big Ben.  Despite three interceptions at Cleveland last year, Roethlisberger led a fourth quarter comeback and ended up with over 12 fantasy points.  Cut the picks, which he did when they played at Pittsburgh, and he would be one of the top five QB’s for week one.

RUNNING BACK

Travis Henry, Denver

This week, expect him to show a top 5 RB score.  Henry goes against a Buffalo run defense which allowed 140+ yards per game last year.  Last year he gained over 130 yards against the Bills in week 16.

Tatum Bell, Detroit

This is a bit of a roll of the dice, but Bell is expected to be the opening day starter for the Lions.  Assuming this is the case and he is healthy, Bell matches up well in the Mike Martz offense against Oakland who ranked 25th in rush defense last year.

WIDE RECEIVER

Darrell Jackson, San Francisco

Depending on the chemistry he has developed with Alex Smith, Darrell has a good chance of putting up some good numbers.  Last year Darrell scored a touchdown in each game against the Cardinals, with over 120 yards in one of those outings.

Deion Branch, Seattle

Branch is probably flying under the radar due to his sub-par year in 2006.  After a half season and complete offseason with Matt Hasselbeck, Branch could emerge in Seattle now that he is the number one receiver, with the departure of Darrell Jackson.  Seattle opens at home against Tampa Bay, who had an average pass defense last year.

TIGHT END

Eric Johnson, New Orleans

We had to pick someone on the first game of the year.  In 2004, Eric Johnson was fourth overall TE with 825 yards for the year.  In 2005 he was injured and last year the Niners drafted V. Davis.  Also, look what happen to the Saints last year tight end – M. Colston was listed as a Tight End in some fantasy leagues making certain fantasy owners very happy while most cried foul.